It’s time to put the population under lid
For many countries, a huge population symbolises strength. China, for instance, has a population far bigger than that of the entire African continent and is the world’s second largest economy. But this development did not come without planning. China until recently kept its population at bay with its one-child per couple policy while India, which also boasts of a huge population, encourages some form of family planning. Today, India is coming up strong as a leading manufacturing country, a technological-savvy nation, and a destination for medical tourism while Nigeria, the seventh most populous country in the world, has a fertility rate that far outstrips its economic growth.
All factors considered, Nigeria’s problem is not necessarily its growing population. Indeed, Nigeria’s young population could be of great demographic advantage if the policymakers can design appropriate policies. Rather, the main challenge is a failure to plan for the population that is fast becoming a huge burden. The average number of births per woman in Nigeria, going by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) statistics, is five. This doubles the global average of 2.5. Meanwhile, millions of Nigerian women have no access to effective family planning methods for reasons ranging from lack of contraceptives to ignorance and religious beliefs. The contraceptive prevalence rate among Nigerian women aged between 15 and 49 is put at only 19 per cent.
At the present rate of growth, Nigeria’s population is expected to double by 2050, thus becoming the third most populous country in the world after China and India. Yet, a combination of sustained negative economic growth and an uncontrolled demographic bulge has put the country in a very difficult and potentially explosive situation. And as the population continues to rise amid decaying infrastructure and social services, there are no policy measures to address the demographic danger beyond going on a borrowing binge without repayment plan. It is a simple economic fact that population growth that is not matched with commensurate development in the socio-economic sector and education for the citizenry can only breed chaos.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) director of Monetary Policy, Dr. Moses Tule said recently that Nigeria’s population had become a liability and would remain so unless it expands its economic base by stimulating the economy and producing the needed goods and services to sustain it. Figures available paint a dire situation of millions of Nigerian youths roaming the streets looking for work but finding none. More than a dozen million children are also not in school. The situation is compounded by the prevailing economic condition that has necessitated a situation in which rather than hire, many private enterprises now fire their staff in the name of rationalisation.
The danger of such a high level of idleness among millions of young persons is already manifesting in the high level of crimes in virtually every corner of the country. Whereas the multitude of violent outbursts might have religious and ethnic colorations and undertones, it is a notorious fact that most of the people in the fields and trenches are youths who if otherwise meaningfully engaged would have been unavailable for those anti-social endeavours. Joblessness and frustrations are evidently fuelling the frequent cases of unrest across the country.
Nigeria must thus sit up to address the growing population problem. First, we must do a credible head count, stripped of politics to stop the dependence on international agencies for “estimated” figures. Accurate head count will aid planning. Nigerians also need to be reminded that a sustainable society is the one with moderate population growth that enables its members to achieve a high quality of life.